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December 4, 2003

Two years after Macedonia 's inter-ethnic war, Western policy-crafters are persuading the country to re-position itself in matters of defense- more or less, to lock on to a new enemy. It is hoped that by getting the (ethnically integrated) security and intelligence structures to fixate on outside potential dangers rather than internal ones, internal interethnic pressure will somewhat dissolve.

Militarily, Macedonia 's goal is being shaped by the larger goals of the NATO alliance and US defense planners- that is, for a lighter, faster and more dynamic defense force that can be better deployed against acts of urban terrorism, that is, “asymmetrical threats.” Nationalists have complained about the apparent coercion of military structures, not to mention the utilization of Macedonian troops in Iraq , and also the planned sale of Macedonia 's few Sukhoi jet fighters in favor of acquiring more helicopters.

However, the last reform, for example, is not actually a bad one. Realistically, Macedonia will not face a large act of aggression from a foreign country, and the “hot spots” within the country are geographically too small for the jets to be effective, because they fly too fast. After all, Macedonia is so small that the jet would probably be out somewhere over the Adriatic by the time the pilot had time to find the ‘kill' switch.

This is an exaggeration, of course. But it does seem that Macedonia can learn to live with the new rules of the game, and that not all of them will have bad effects. The main weapon in its arsenal remains, of course, Western diplomacy. If the country's hard-won apparent acceptance remains in place, there is little that Albanian secessionists can do except grit their teeth and continue with largely symbolic provocations.

Macedonia is not fighting America 's war, at least not yet. The country is perfectly safe against Islamic terrorism. The problem of occasional violence does remain the same as it has always been- Kosovo-instigated, ethnically-motivated acts of sabotage and provocation.

However, the arrival of other suitors might peeve the Americans. Last week in Moscow , PM Branko Crvenkovski met with his Russian counterpart, Mikhail Kasyanov, and signed a pact on military cooperation (mostly, however in the area of repairing existing Russian-made equipment). This new Russian cooperation also comes at a time when Tony Blair is trying to calm the Americans over the prospect of an EU defense force that could hypothetically compete with or replace NATO.

Alliance Commander Gen. J.E. Jones last week pledged to leave Macedonia by the end of the year. The country is invited to join NATO- probably not until 2006, though. What will happen in the interim?

It is clear that Macedonia will continue to follow the American lead, donating troops where required, buying weapons when desired, and in general remaining a loyal fief.

While we have said that Macedonia is not fighting America 's war, could America 's war be brought to the country in the future? In other words, could the American mandate for Macedonian reform and self-defense ever at some point be tested in the manner anticipated?

The answer is no, at least not without an event accompanied by supreme irony. It is unlikely that large-scale Islamic terrorism will occur in Macedonia soon. The bin Laden's of the world have much bigger fish to fry. And the very fact that Macedonia is such a soft target (the defense minister can stroll around at public gatherings without bodyguards) makes it an unappetizing one. Even if, as we suspect, a certain amount of foreign Islamic fundamentalists are present in villages near Kicevo, Kumanovo, Tetovo and the Kosovo border, as well as in Kosovo itself, these characters have been peaceful and are probably operationally restricted by the (secular enough) Albanian liberation movement, which still seeks to win Western support.

Nevertheless, the American order has been given, and the security services have been re-oriented. There has never been public acknowledgment from the Americans of Macedonian intelligence help in the war against Islamic extremists (though the Macedonians have often claimed that they've been helpful to the US ). Yet the new relationship continues, and the Macedonian intelligence services are since 9/11 mostly interested in the presence or suspected presence of foreign Islamists on their soil and in Kosovo. Using their existing contacts in the region- it must be said, with a vital informational input from certain Albanians- the Macedonians are positioned to do a better job than their very conspicuous American counterparts in the CIA, who typically enter the country through some governmental or non-governmental job and proceed to stick out like a sore thumb.

This is why, from the point of view of the war on terror, the US made a big mistake in bypassing and alienating the masterful Serbs in Kosovo. Despite all that has gone on there since 1999, Serbian intelligence remains strong and enjoys plenty of local contacts, from all ethnic groups. A former director of the Pakistani ISI lamented last year that if the Americans had gone through the ISI's established channels, and not committed to an unwieldy bombing campaign, the Pakistanis could easily have produced bin Laden and whoever else they may have wanted- from the inside.

There is something to be said for this way of thinking. In complex places like the Balkans and Central Asia , the American sledgehammer often produces a result counter to the one desired. To achieve its current strategic objectives, the US should consider the human dimension available from cooperating with Macedonian and Serbian intelligence, instead of trying to go around them or getting in from the “outside” (i.e., the UNMIK bureaucracy, KFOR police or organizations like the OSCE). While these groups may have better technical equipment, vehicles and jackets, they do not have the advantage where it counts- on the ground. Even with global positioning equipment and high-tech surveillance systems, once an outsider, always an outsider. If the US can guarantee their stability and territorial integrity, the Macedonians will certainly cooperate where the US wants. The trick is in getting arrogant America to take them seriously.