December 9, 2003
By Nikola Panov
The initial Census results ignited loud reactions within the [ethnic] Macedonian
and the [ethnic] Albanian political establishment, but, above all, left serious
doubts within the [overall] Macedonian public. One of the main reasons for it
is the large percentage of growth of the [ethnic] Albanian population, which-at
the press-conference-was attributed to a large natural increase. Observing these
data, I noticed that the natural increase for the period 1994-2002 amounted to
a whole 15.4%, or close to 68,000 inhabitants, or an annual increase of 9,714
new persons. The average number of this population grew by 2.2% annually, in
contrast to the previous 40 years, when the annual increase amounted to 6,816,
or 2,780 inhabitants less than in the last 7 years. This information astonished
me, considering the fact that the level of emancipation of the [ethnic] Albanian
women visibly increased in the last decade.
Absurd
I was even more amazed by the numbers regarding the general population: in
contrast to 1991 when it amounted to 2,033,964 inhabitants, in 2002 it decreased
to 2,022,547 persons, with a negative difference of 11,417 people. [According
to announced Census results,] the number of the [ethnic] Macedonian population,
during the same period, decreased by 10,011 inhabitants, which is almost
the same number as the general population decrease. When I later checked
the results for the other ethnic groups, I noticed a decrease of the percentage
of the [ethnic] Turkish and the [ethnic] Serbian population, with a bit less
than 10,000 inhabitants from both of these two peoples. This number, summed
with the number of decrease of the [ethnic] Macedonian citizens, amounts
to about 21,000. When this sum is taken out of the total number of increase
for the [ethnic] Albanians (68,000), what remains is 47,000 [new ethnic Albanians].
This means that the total number of the population should be, at least, 47,000
more than the number from 1994, even if we take for granted the data that
the absolute number of Macedonians decreased, which is kind of absurd. No
Macedonian should believe this data.
Even if we suppose that these data may be valid--a claim I absolutely refuse
to accept--the continuation of this trend in the proportion of the two biggest
ethnic communities would lead to having the same number for both of them in
2050, or even with Albanians having a slight numerical advantage. When
I calculated this incredible and, for the Macedonians, lethal peace of
data, I remembered the commentary by Professor Marjanovich about the thesis
of virtual numbers. I asked myself the following question: if they really
are virtual, what is their goal and who would like to virtually distort
data concerning vital national interest? Someone should be behind that.
A virtual danger may also have real consequences. Building on that foundation,
Ms. Teuta Arifi, three days after the publishing of Census results, required
that the number of [ethnic] Albanians in the public administration be increased
to the "virtual" 25%. According to the
Governmental decree, 4,000 ethnic Macedonian employees of this sector are already
scheduled for firing by next March, and they certainly won't get new jobs in
Albania. On the other hand, if the Census data are real, we are still facing
the threatening prognosis mentioned earlier. So, the [ethnic] Macedonians are
damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
The next day I read a statement by my colleague, an [ethic] Albanian, who
deals with demography, claiming that the lowered rate of natural increase
of the [ethnic] Macedonian population is due to the high mortality rate,
which allegedly stands at 80%, or that 13,000 out of every 16,000 [ethnic]
Macedonian newborns die. According to him, the comparable number for [ethnic]
Albanian newborns is only 2,700. I dare not comment this statement, and
can only hope there's a printing error in the text.
Certain Small Mistakes
The most tragic aspect of this all was that somebody had to publish the Census
result via a press-conference, and of course, defend them. On that occasion,
I expected to see, besides the CEO of the State Statistical Office <http://www.stat.gov.mk>,
some representatives of the State Census Commission, independent expert, a member
of the international monitoring, who, in the name of the group, would grade the
Census. Unfortunately, I saw a bunch of monitoring-persons, whom I could not
count even, or pinpoint their institutions or proveniences. The presence of such
large number of monitors made me feel that something is wrong. They defended
the words of the CEO of the SSO, admitting that there could have been certain
small mistakes. They seem to consider a small mistake the difference in the absolute
numbers between the two above-mentioned populations, during the two periods in
between censuses, amounting to 100,000 persons, which directly bangs the drum
of the favorite group. The red and skewed face of Mr. Snorenson, one of the monitoring-puppets,
put on display the whole movie for me, telling me that the next scene from the
movie "Framework Agreement," titled "25.17%," may begin.
For the first time in my life, another persons' statements made me feel-as a
born Macedonian-ashamed, framed, and thrown at the garbage like a lowlife. I
wonder how our representatives felt, unless their shaming capability has been
surgically removed, during this shameful demographic festival, while the Census
results were in advance known to the international institutions, and the Census
Commission got to know about them from the media. The Albanians asked for 30%,
the Macedonians knew that their percentage is 19, but to preserve the political
consensus and prevent arguments, they decided on the middle number of 25,17,
gladly accepted by the members of the international monitoring.
I suspect, and I believe our readers also do, where would spatially appear
those close to 70,000 newly registered inhabitants, who might not be virtual,
but imported [ethnic] Albanian citizens, who in a few days would own Macedonian
citizenship. They will not appear in the rural areas, but target those urban
zones, where the proportion of the [ethnic] Macedonian and the [ethnic] Albanian
population is either the same or with a slight tilt towards the Albanian
side. Then, maybe, drawing the new map of municipal territories in Macedonia,
crippled to 2/3, won't be so important.
(The author is a geography professor at the Faculty
of Mathematics and Natural Sciences in Skopje.)
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